A month away from the Presidential Election, voting behavior expert Margaret Blue, associate professor of political science, points out what this election year has taught us and what could make or break Bush and Kerry’s chances leading up to Nov. 2.
On polling and Al Gore
National polling is all well and good to see how people are reacting, but the problem comes in that we don’t elect a president based on a national popular vote. Just ask Al Gore. We elect state by state so the really good and interesting polling is done at the state level. That’s what a lot of people forget, and that becomes a problem when they look at poll data.
On home states
Home states were interesting battlegrounds last time because Bush carried Tennessee (Gore’s home state) and Arkansas (Bill Clinton’s home state). This year, it will be interesting to see if John Edwards can carry the Carolinas. But I think the Kerry campaign is smart enough to use Bill Clinton in whatever ways necessary to pick up Arkansas this time.
On swing states
We’re not seeing a lot of action here in California because we’re historically a Democratic state. It’s the swing states that both candidates are really going after. There are those that have long been Republican like Arizona and Nevada that Bush is working hard to keep. And Kerry is really hitting hard in states Democrats usually carry like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
On the changing face of the South
The South used to be overwhelmingly Democratic, but that’s changed as the South has changed. It’s become more industrial and that has led to a number of younger, fairly well educated Easterners to move to the South and change the political climate. Look at cities like Atlanta – it’s really become a major U.S. city. You just don’t see the same political split you saw years ago. We can see that closer to home with Nevada – there has been a major exodus moving from California. All you have to do to see that is pick up the L.A. Times. The weekend sections are full of huge ads for housing developments in Las Vegas. That population shift could change how the state votes.
On messages and momentum
Originally, I assumed it was Kerry’s campaign to lose, because he gained a lot of momentum coming out of the primaries, and there seemed to be a lot of dissatisfaction, even among Republicans, with Bush. They weren’t happy with Iraq, the economy, some pretty major issues. It didn’t seem to me Bush had the depth of support I would expect of an incumbent. But I’m beginning to think that may not be true. Bush has a clear message. I think it’s been surprising that Kerry hasn’t been able to focus and really articulate his issues better.
On who will come out on top
They say Kerry is a good closer, but then they say Bush has some momentum. We’ll see, but between now and Election Day, who knows? There are a tremendous number of variables that could swing the vote one way or another. An upswing in the economy, a major terrorist attack, a change in the situation in Iraq – there’s just no way of telling, but they all could have a major impact on how this election turns out. Something that could have a major impact on the outcome that is a little more in the candidates’ control is the remaining series of debates throughout this month. The two Presidential Debates (on Oct. 8 and 13) and the one Vice Presidential Debate (on Oct. 5) will be big tests for both.
The opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the positions of the College of Business Administration and Public Policy.
